Japan:
·
The growing Chinese economy may prove to be a challenge for Japan's economic status and role in Asia and the world.
·
The rising military spending of
China in an attempt to build
more effective capabilities and their increased activity in Asia
is taken with alarm by the Japanese military strategists. Many senior
politicians called the
rearmament of China a "threat" to the national security of Japan.
·
We should mark the existence of
territorial disputes with China
in respect of the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku in Japanese), disputes over
exclusive economic zone and dispute over resources in the South
China Sea. Is not excluded that the two forces will run over
increasingly in the contentious areas and in the Pacific. Small incidents can
catalyze large-scale operations and could cause disruptions in Eastern Asian
security.
·
Any crisis between China and Taiwan
will impose a difficult strategic dilemma for Japan. As a U.S. ally, Japan
will feel obliged to engage in conflict, entering into an open confrontation
with China.
Even in times of peace, Japan
is experiencing difficulties in managing relations with Taiwan in the context of those with China.
·
Japan may witness a convergence of South and North Korea with China as its neighbors will be aiming at Japan's isolation from developments in the region and the marginalization of the Japanese role there.
·
A possible Chinese leadership in an initiative to creating Asian regionalism, including the promotion of cooperation in the economy and security, could mean that the Japanese importance in East Asia might be further reduced.
·
Chinese and Japanese role in the UN
peacekeeping operations and other global organizations are not regulated. Japan and
China
may be involved in competition between each other in different parts of the
world. This would appear to be exhausting for both sides, could make
their assessments hasty and inaccurate and in that way to create more insecurity
in their relations.
China:
·
A major change in the view of
the Japanese leaders, its society and the rising Japanese nationalism are perceived
by the Chinese as changing the foundations of bilateral relations between Japan and China, established almost four
decades ago. The status quo was founded in the seventies through the joint
communiqué of 1972 and the peace treaty of 1978. Those agreements state that Japan apologizes for its invasion and for the
damages it inflicted during the of war, China
accepts the apologies. Also, Japan
recognizes that Taiwan is
part of China
and shall not maintain official relations with the island and both sides promised
to develop peaceful relations and to cooperate. Recently, China believes that Japan sharply deviates from these
principles.
·
In recent years some of the Japanese leaders demanded change of the pacifist constitution. Their
desire is that Japan should
start playing more important role in the modern world and start assuming greater
responsibility for global problems. Thus, Japan should be able to deploy troops as a partner of
the United States and
important member of the United Nations, and even to operate independently in Asia and other regions. China observes this fact with
suspicion and worry. The main questions for the Chinese strategists are is this a new militarization of Japan? Is it a threat to China a new Japan that has a modern army
willing and ready to take a worthy place in the world? The
Chinese people might overreact on such change that is undergoing in Japan.
·
Japan broadens its commitment into the "internal" Chinese
problem- the Taiwan issue,
due to the bilateral pact between the U.S.
and Japan, and America's insistence on stronger Japanese
support in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
This dilemma is not only in terms of security, for China it is a matter of
indisputable sovereignty.
·
In addition to the Taiwan
question, there are other unresolved issues that threaten the security. Japan may be tempted to take solid actions in an
attempt to have total control over the disputed islands and marine areas, which
simultaneously are claimed by China.
Of course, Japan could make
such a decision on this kind of move not only because of its military, air and
sea superiority, but also because of the belief that it can count on support
from its ally- the United
States.
· Japan's desire to play more influential role in world politics is clearly visible. For China
this is a security issue of paramount importance. Would China accept Japan that has a powerful navy, a
modern army that’s been located in various global points, enjoying a global
recognition? Does China need
to accept Japan
as a superpower or rather to prevent the island country to reach this status?
Is the Sino-Japanese rivalry inevitable and to what extent it could be
manageable? Questions whose answers are not entirely clear.
United States of America:
·
Japan and China are on
the rise, and this poses a challenge for the United States. China is gaining economic and military power,
while Japan is trying to
revive as a factor in Asia and the world and
to turn itself back to "normal force". For now, the Japanese ambitions
to restore power seem acceptable and even welcomed by the United States, but some Japanese aspirations, such
as a place of permanent member in the Security Council of the United Nations,
could cause unexpected consequences for America.
·
The experience from previous years shows that
when Japan's relations with China and South
Korea have been deteriorated, for the US it was more difficult to defend its
interests in East Asia. Isolated Japan is not in the interest of America.
·
America must decide what role to play in the trilateral relations with Japan and China. Should the United States reconsider one or the
other for a closer partner or it needs both sides? Does the strategic
rivalry between China and Japan serve in the interest of America?
What the US
should do to maintain the status quo if necessary? When the Sino-Japanese
relations are strained, both may need the United States. This is a dangerous
choice to be made by America.
·
United
States will have to clarify its
strategic goal in East Asia. Its actions will
result from the adoption of a clear vision for the region. Strengthening the U.S.
bilateral relations with countries from the region (e.g. USA- Japan, USA-
Philippines, USA- South Korea, etc.) can distort the balance of power. The
presence of broad-based institutions with many players (even if the EU
contribution would be appropriate) might have a stabilizing effect.
·
Alternatively to the US,
although much more complex and with very uncertain success, would be the involvement
of China and Japan separately in constructive initiatives in the region and
worldwide, while maintaining the system at the level of bilateral relations.
No comments:
Post a Comment