Is there a strategic rivalry between China and Japan?

U.S., Japan and China are undeniably the most important strategic forces in East Asia. The stability there depends mainly on the relationship between the three countries. When we look closer at their relationship, we will discover something really alarming. While there are negotiations and dialogue between Japan, USA and Australia, as well as between China, Russia and India, the lack of any mechanism for joint talks between leaders of Tokyo, Beijing and Washington to discuss trilateral relations and regional issues, is at least worrisome. 

It is essential that the major forces in the Far East be linked through mutual initiatives to improve communication among themselves, to consult each other and cooperate to ensure lasting peace and sustainable development in East Asia. The region is extremely dynamic and beneath the surface a dramatic shift is ongoing that provoke changes, which might alter fundamentally the security in Asia.

The change that occurs in Japan today has big proportions, which are visible in its society and in the new generations of Japanese leaders. Citizens and politicians that have witnessed the defeat of Japan in World War II and are experiencing strong feelings of guilt, are almost entirely replaced by a new generation, unencumbered by memories of war (the former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda was an exception).

        The new generation of leaders clearly shown that they want to "forget" the war and leave it in the past. They look at the last sixty years as a period of continuous apology from Japan and consider these years are more than sufficient. New generations are ready to lead the country out of the shadow of the war, and to some extent it means changing the pacifist constitution imposed by the United States.

       The willingness of the Japanese society to transform its country into a "normal force" is the invisible engine of Japan's behavior in the international arena. Japan is on the rise, despite the economic stagnation in which it fell in the last twenty years. Japan’s new rise will coincide with the emerging of other giant, China, and if they, as a major players, fail to find a formula for regulating the relations between them, the possible consequences would be unpredictable.

The internal shift in China is characterized by a recommencement of nationalism and a growing confidence about China's role in the world among its political elite as well as population. This change is mainly generated by the unprecedented economic rise of China. In the eighties of the last century, China observed the stunning economic and technological rise of Japan, which served it as an example and catalyst for development.

        Over the past three decades the Chinese have gained confidence and esteem due to the rapid economic rise, while Japan fell into stagnation. The Japanese began to feel the insecurity, caused by catching-up China, which in turn started to look at the regional picture from a completely different perspective. Chinese leaders realize that they can and should take a tougher stance against Japan on issues on which they have felt unable to insist until recently. The unresolved issues between China and Japan are numerous, and it seems that for China it is time for reprisal.

Fundamental structural shift between China and Japan is ongoing and changing the balance of power between the two countries. They were the main forces and the greatest civilizations in Asia for thousands of years. Until the nineteenth century, with short periods of exceptions, the balance of power was clear, China was stronger than Japan. After Japan conducted reforms during the Meiji period and opened to the Western world, it started to grow much faster than China. In the late nineteenth century, Japan became the only industrialized nation in Asia, while China lagged far behind at that time.

After the Meiji Restoration in 1868, for a period of little more than a century Japan was more advanced and powerful nation than China in almost all aspects of life- economic, technological, military and political. The result of this new balance of power was expressed in several wars between China and Japan in the late nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century, which invariably ended with the defeat of China. During this period, China lost Taiwan to Japan for the period of half a century. (Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95).

Today, we see that the balance of power between China and Japan is altering again. It is also true that modern Japan still has advantage in some major areas, measuring national power, its modern economy, science and technology, military arsenal management. However, it is also true that China is catching up fast with stunning rapidity. China surpassed Japan in respect to economy size and that certainly changed the attitude of the Japanese towards China and vice versa.
 

For now, the only advantage of Japan over China is the modern technologies it develops. Japan already lost its economic advantage, which can mean that its supremacy might not be available in the near future. Overall, the Japanese Army outstands that of China regarding the modernization and possesses advanced technologies, but its proceedings are limited by Japan's policy in this area.

           In general, however, a military domination over China is non-realistic, due to the possession of nuclear weapons by Beijing. The Chinese cultural hegemony, regional and international influence have always been larger than those of Japan, as China has played a central historical role in Asia for the last several millennia.

         The Japanese cultural influence has never been regarded as dominant, even at the regional level, except in the decades after World War II. Today China is a member of the Security Council of the United Nations and enjoys good relations with almost all its neighbors, while Japan is trying with all its potential to win diplomatic support for its contention for a permanent member of the Security Council. Moreover, Japan's relations with its neighbors have been strained and historically burdened (as those with China, Russia, North and South Korea, etc.), which further complicates the situation for Tokyo.

These internal structural changes shift the basis on which the relations between the two Asian powers rest. The changes project on their new national strategies and policies that both countries adopt. If this trend of development is maintained, the appearance of apparent strategic uncertainty in the region is quite possible.

         This scenario can be avoided only if  the U.S. is added to the equation, whose role would be a balancing one and helping in institution building. Finding reasonable solutions can be implemented by responsible international powers. It is still unknown as what kind of superpower will China emerge and whether its rise will be a challenge to the international system or it will become a responsible regional, if not global, stakeholder.

China and Japan are facing increasing strategic mutual suspicion and mistrust as well as new contradictions, that seem will permanently mark their future relations. These problems are more serious, more real and essential. These unresolved issues will determine the nature of the relations between the two Asian countries and could push the situation towards confrontation, conflict and rivalry.

         These unresolved problems directly affect the U.S. strategic interests in Asia and create uncertainty in Washington in regard to the relations with China.  The challenges to the regional security stand before the three countries and the approach of each one of them in search for solution will determine the development of the affairs between China, Japan and the U.S. In the next post we'll try to answer the question "what threats see Japan, China and the U.S. separately?".