 | |
| East Asia |
The contestants for global power
At a first glance, it is easy to point out the potential future
powers of eventual multipolar order- states like China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and even Russia, seem to
have a chance to create successful models of development and attain higher
international status, turning themselves into factors of greater global importance.
The question is
how today’s global leader, the US, will react to the emergence of so many other
countries? America
is the global hegemon and it will have to face a hard choice- how to shape the
future world when it still has the greatest impact in international affairs? Should the United States
prepare itself for a system based on mutual
respect and mutual responsibilities searching for constructive solutions of
the global problems or should it jealously protect its status of the only global
superpower and to oppose to any attempt seeking to challenge its dominance?
The latter scenario could plunge the world into even
more chaotic setting, creating mistrust, indignation and separation, while
the former scenario would be very serious challenge for the international
community as a whole and under the condition that the US will accept such a development. But does the United
States really face such a dilemma?
Among the above mentioned contestants for greater global
recognition, we can easily distinguish India
and especially China.
The stable growth of the Chinese power for the last thirty years has lead to
deep shift in East Asian affairs. In regional scope, many countries are experiencing
great economic uprising- the ASEAN countries, China,
South Korea, Taiwan
and others.
Despite the fact that the Japanese economy was badly
shaken by the global financial crisis, its efficiency remains unmatched in Asia and it
is likely to remain so. The unprecedented economic development in Asia-Pacific
creates global implications. For the relatively short period from the end of
World War Two until today, hundreds of millions of people went out of the
absolute poverty thanks to the economic development of their countries and
their involvement in the global markets.
The fast economic rise of the East Asian countries is
not the only regional characteristic- the common international insecurity, which
dominates despite the efforts of the local governments, is also worth paying
attention. The lack of solid institutions for cooperation might appear a
serious obstacle for maintaining the fast economic growth which the regional
countries enjoyed for decades.
The importance of USA, China and Japan
Undeniably, the most important players in East Asian
affairs are the US, China and Japan. The relations between them
are of extreme importance for the development of regional politics. In this series we'll try to reveal the processes that shape the relations
between the three great powers, their suitability for cooperation and the weak
points where collision is possible.
The issue with the mutual mistrust between the East
Asian countries is a serious one and a solution might be found through
multilateral institutions building, in which they may find consensus on mutual
problems. Without the involvement of the US,
China and Japan, the most powerful factors in
the region, all initiatives will seem incomplete.
The trilateral
relations between the United States,
China and Japan are of a fundamental
importance for the security and stability in Asia-Pacific but the conflict
between them is not impossible. Today’s gravity center of the international
system is of course the US.
It holds much more capabilities and diplomatic force, which in some cases
narrows the choice in front of China
and Japan.
The interactions between the three states create dynamic
changes in the region and the relations between them are so complex and
mutually binding, that a conflict could result in gigantic damage
for the participants and the others. Such a scenario is strongly unwanted but that does not mean it’s inevitable.
The existence of serious problems could be tackled
through responsible attitude by the three countries, using the advantages of the
modern diplomacy and by the realization that the benefits of a cooperation would
be much greater than choosing destructive and selfish approach towards common
issues.
Security Issues in East Asia
There are many reasons to worry about the uncertainty in East Asia.
At a glance some of the problems in East Asia
seem so serious that a solution would be very hard to find. There are big historical issues, straining the relations between the
three major powers and their impact on the contemporary events. The challenges,
inherited by the Cold War- the division of Korea and the Taiwan issue, form a
dangerous mix with a challenge of a new type- supplying the fast emerging local
economies with enough resources to sustain their growth.
East Asia is a region with great inner dynamics,
charged with multiple problems, which is an indication that an escalation of
tensions could cause serious disruption in the regional security. The choice for the countries in the Far East is to
engage in non-constructive race in selfish defense of their vital interests, or
to look for mutually acceptable solutions, although taking the risk of
incomplete results regarding their own interests.
First of all, however, this decision will have to be
made by the most important regional powers- the US, China and Japan, whose
relations will determine the direction of the region’s future.
